No. 367
FROM: Berlin (Osima)
TO: Tokyo
April 16, 1941
# 418.
Part 2 of 4.
However, if paralleling her attack on England, Germany undertakes a war against the Soviet, she will have to fight on two fronts and this will broaden the scope of the war tremendously. However, since the beginning of this war Germany has gained much experience and with an army in the neighborhood of 250 divisions of highly mechanized troops she could maintain a tremendous superiority over the Red army. Furthermore, since she is fighting
Page A-190
England in the air she would not need her land forces in the west. The Soviet air arm is long outmoded and Germany has in the neighborhood of 20,000 planes of the latest model. Furthermore, she will use her submarines in the war on England and they, together with the airplanes, will enable Germany while maintaining superiority over Britain, at the same time to undertake a campaign against Russia. After mopping up in Yugoslavia, Germany can turn her attention to the war in Africa and to bringing the African peoples into line. In this she already appears to be succeeding to a certain extent. After gaining such military and political successes, Germany can hardly afford to lose this opportunity. She cannot wait until the Soviet is better prepared. The Soviet has long been her enemy and Germany realizes that she must fight her. However, everyone generally agrees that she had better fight soon because it would be more difficult to wage war in Russia during the winter time.
You have only to observe HITLER’s way of doing things to understand what he is likely to do. Before the events of year before last not only did I hear from high military sources what was going to happen but I already guessed it. Germany judges that conditions in the Soviet are very unsettled and beyond any doubt the German military officials consider that their chances are excellent to defeat the Soviet.
Trans. 4-29-41
No. 368
FROM: Berlin (Osima)
TO: Tokyo
April 16, 1941
# 418.
Part 3 of 4.
2. When we observe HITLER’s leadership in the present war, on the one hand we can see that he does not say what he is going to do before he does it, and on the other hand, needless to say, he carefully weighs everything. Before he would venture into a war with the Soviet, he would carefully lay both military and political plans. First, Germany would scheme to obtain land on the Soviet border. She would likely bring the Ukraine and the Caucasus under her control. Probably such plans are already afoot. If the German army defeated the Red army it would be beyond saying into what state Soviet intra-national affairs would fall and what a catastrophe it would be to the STALIN regime. Even if the STALIN regime continued, needless to say, its influence would be nullified.
Well, you know what pressure the Soviet has always brought to bear upon us in the north and, if the Germans defeat the Russians, the pressure which London and Moscow have been bringing to bear upon us would automatically vanish.
England and the United States both hope that the war will be extended through a German-Russian struggle. They would both rejoice over that and endeavor to assist the Soviet, but in the end England, and the United States too, would not really be able to afford STALIN very much assistance. Nor would their puny efforts have much effect on the outcome of such a struggle.
Trans. 4-29-41
Page A-191
No. 369
FROM: Berlin (Osima)
TO: Tokyo
April 16, 1941
# 418.
Part 4 of 4.
3. In case Germany and Russia go to war, of course we might revive our one time anti-Communistic national policy, but now that we have concluded a neutrality treaty with Moscow and inasmuch as Germany is confident that she can whip the Russians, I do not think that she expects us to make a simultaneous attack on them. I think that all Germany would desire would be that we keep our soldiers and military establishments intact in Northern Manchukuo to prevent Russian soldiers in that area from being transferred to the scene of the conflict. I think that would satisfy the Germans. I further consider that what Germany would most wish would be rather that we restrain England and the United States by our policy in the South Seas. In any case, it is clear that there is no need for us to parallel every act of Germany. Still, from the point of view of our own best interests, I think that we should carefully choose our time and attack from the north. The first thing we wish to do is to definitely establish our sovereignty over Greater East Asia. Now, Anglo-American influence in the Far East, centering around Singapore, is a threat and a menace to this. Therefore, it is absolutely essential presently to seize that city. The European situation is marching to a climax at high speed. Germany has seized the Eastern Mediterranean and is about to plant the Swastika at the Suez and in the Near East. The British Mediterranean Fleet may never return home but may rather proceed to the Far East to protect Britain’s colonies, where England may expect to transfer her influence. I would not say there is no danger of that. So far as the continent of Europe is concerned, England is already out. Furthermore, the odds are twenty to one against a war between Japan and Russia. This will have a tremendous effect on America’s pressure in the Far East. Furthermore, in case war actually does not break between Germany and Russia, this is fine from the point of view of our plans and may give us excellent opportunities.
What we advise is that you immediately adopt the above described plans as our national policy and as soon as you have gotten a sufficient understanding with Germany and Italy to carry it out and as soon as we have the means, to apply ourselves to action.
This and my caption message are the only messages being sent. The Military and Naval Attaches are not sending them. Therefore, will you please communicate their contents to the Ministers of War and Navy. I want again to impress upon you the great importance of keeping secret my caption message and letting no leaks occur.
Trans. 4-29-41
No. 370
FROM: Berlin (Osima)
TO: Tokyo
April 24, 1941
# 456.
Part 2 of 2 [a].
4. I said: “I can well understand how you can divide your forces up so as to let the Navy fight England and the Army fight Russia, but I cannot quite see how you can have enough airplanes to fight in both the east and the west at the same time.”
He replied: “In answer to your question let me explain that in numbers too the German air force is preeminent. We have plenty of planes for both areas. In our attack on London on the night of the 16th we used 646 planes. On the night of the 17th we had planned to use 760 planes
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but the weather got bad during the night and we used only 400. Nevertheless, their effect was great. We have more planes than we have ever brought into use and we can increase the number in action, but naturally there is a limit. We would fight in the east without curtailing the number of planes necessary for our attack on Great Britain.
5. Summing all this up, Germany is fairly confident that she can defeat the Soviet and she is preparing to fight the Soviet at any moment, I think. The question as to whether Germany will fight or compromise with Russia will be settled by Chancellor HITLER alone and no man can say today just what will happen, but in any case it is up to us to get ready and lay our plans for whatever takes place. Will you please prepare a counter policy?
I have conferred with the Military and Naval Attaches on this message.
[a] Not available.
Trans. 4-29-41
No. 371
FROM: Stockholm (Koda)
TO: (Gaimudaijin), Tokyo
13 April 1941
# 042.
Part 1 of 2. Part 2 not available.
According to intelligence, Germany is forcing the suppression of anti-German newspaper articles in (Sweden?) and (Finland?). At the same time German agents are exceedingly busy in those two countries, and in general it may be said that the Germans are following a very aggressive policy against these two countries.
It is said that the cause for this policy is to beat the U.S.S.R. to it, if she attempts to do anything. It is further reported that the Germans have made considerable inroads into the government circles of Finland.
The Finnish government has suddenly ordered many Finnish civilians and 26 members of the diplomatic corps who allegedly have pro-British leanings, to return.
It is believed that this was motivated by the Germans.
Trans. 5-2-41
No. 372
FROM: Berlin (Osima)
TO: Tokyo
April 24, 1941
# 457.
Part 1 of 2.
1. When the non-aggression treaty was concluded both Berlin and Moscow agreed in principle that the border line as of 1914 should be recognized and when a division of populations took place it was done fairly harmoniously; but, in view of the result of the German-Polish war, Germany came to demand the maintenance of a line further to the east. Russia declared that if she recognized this she would have to annex the three Baltic nations and, on the terms that she be allowed a sufficient length of time to evacuate German residents of those three nations, Germany recognized the Soviet claim. That was when Berlin and Moscow concluded their commercial pact year before last and for a time Berlin-Moscow relations were growing more intimate.
2. Although there had been no understanding or conversation between Berlin and Moscow concerning the invasion of Finland, seeing how Russia had gone ahead and taken this ter-
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ritory, Germany in order to keep on good terms with Moscow recognized this as the restoration of an old dependency. Moscow, furthermore, guaranteed the continuance of Finland as such and while she was not particularly pleased with it, Berlin did not make a single demand and maintained neutrality; but it is now clear that Germany does not intend to lose her foothold in Finland. Germany wants to establish a new order in Europe in which she wants Finland included. Therefore, she has lately been spreading cultural propaganda in that country, much to the dissatisfaction of the Soviet. Consequently, for a week or so the Soviet has been instigating demonstrations in Finland and Germany is none too happy over this course of events. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
Trans. 4-29-41
No. 373
FROM: Berlin (Osima)
TO: Tokyo
April 24, 1941
# 457.
Part 2 of 2.
3. When the commercial pact was concluded Russia already had her eyes on Bessarabia but, in order to prevent a Balkan flare-up, she satisfied herself with assurances from Germany that she would get this territory after the war. Last year, however, the Soviet suddenly seized Bessarabia and annexed Bukovina. This infuriated Germany. So last year under duress from Germany, Romania gave up territory to Yugoslavia and Hungary; and Germany, Italy, Romania and Hungary got together on counter Russian policy.
4. In spite of this state of affairs, last autumn MOLOTOV visited Berlin. Up to that time German-Soviet relations could not be said to have grown particularly bad and at the time RIBBENTROP hoped to draw the Kremlin into the Three Power Alliance. In spite of Germany’s eloquent solicitation, MOLOTOV would give no clear reply. The final Soviet answer did state that, in return for guaranteeing Germany’s rights in Finland, her special position and rights in Bulgaria would have to be recognized by Germany. Germany said no and without consulting Moscow began to lay her Balkan schemes. Consequently, when Bulgaria joined the Tripartite Treaty, the Kremlin issued an unfriendly communiqué and formed a non-aggression pact with Turkey. When Yugoslavia joined the Tripartite Alliance, Russia railed at her. Louis J. Sheehan, Esquire
Trans. 4-29-41